Though wins clearly held outsized importance to award voters in 1996, Pat Hentgen’s win was backed up by plenty more.
It’s certainly not a stretch to say that 1996 was not a friendly year for the average pitcher.
As MLB returned for its full season after the 1994-95 players’ strike, the league fully took its strides toward the power-friendly home run era that would ensue in the following decade, a rare period in MLB history where a starter with an ERA above 4 was often considered above-average.
That was certainly the case in 1996, where the MLB-wide team ERA was 4.60, a figure that leaped to 4.99 when only considering American League clubs.
Therefore, it shouldn’t come as any surprise that there weren’t any generationally great pitching seasons, at least in the AL, in 1996 – offense was blossoming at an unforeseen rate, and it was the league’s pitchers that were having trouble keeping up, much to the contrary of today’s baseball.
However, there were still a good handful of very impressive campaigns from AL pitchers in 1996, including a few from pitchers that were entirely overlooked in the voting process, almost certainly because of how important win totals previously were for many voters.
Here’s a look at how the real-life voting shook out for the 1996 AL Cy Young Award:
In a very close race, Blue Jays starter Pat Hentgen edged out Yankees lefty Andy Pettitte on virtue of having five more first-place votes.
Below is a look at how I would have filled out the top five on my ballot, listed alongside some stats, my reasoning and the change from their ranking in real-life.
5. Alex Fernandez, Chicago White Sox (+1)
Season stats: 6.4 WAR, 16-10, 3.45 ERA, 6 CG, 1 CGSHO, 258 IP, 72 BB, 200 K, 138 ERA+, 1.240 WHIP
While the White Sox just barely missed out on the postseason, finishing three games behind the Wild Card-winning Baltimore Orioles, it would be hard to blame the South Siders’ solidly above average rotation, headlined by a stellar season from Alex Fernandez.
Just one year before factoring into a Florida Marlins rotation that would go on to win the World Series, Fernandez had a career year in Chicago, worth over six wins above replacement while pitching 258 innings and recording 200 strikeouts.
Though the ChiSox came up short in their playoff push, one would be hard-pressed to blame Fernandez for any of it – after an inconsistent first half that saw hitters amass a .791 OPS against him, opponents scuffled to a .222 batting average and .609 OPS after the All-Star break.
Fernandez also significantly improved his control, increasing an unremarkable 2.37 strikeout-to-walk ratio to an excellent 3.65, a significant factor behind a second-half WHIP of 0.997.
Had Fernandez gotten more run support in games he ended up with a no-decision in, it’s easy to see the White Sox picking up a few more of those necessary wins, as he held a 3.08 ERA across those nine starts.
Perhaps most impressively, Fernandez developed a penchant for working out of jams, holding opponents to a .596 OPS with two outs and runners in scoring position, while offenses managed just a .587 OPS facing Fernandez in high leverage situations.
4. Juan Guzmán, Toronto Blue Jays (No votes received)
Season stats: 6.7 WAR, 11-8, 2.93 ERA, 4 CG, 1 CGSHO, 187.2 IP, 53 BB, 165 K, 171 ERA+, 1.124 WHIP
Though undoubtedly held back by a smaller workload that saw just 27 starts and 187.2 innings, Guzmán was also the strongest pitcher in the junior circuit in 1996 by many metrics.
The past reliance on wins as a determining factor in a season’s performance was likely the biggest reason Guzmán didn’t receive any Cy Young votes, despite leading the American League in ERA, ERA+ and WHIP.
Guzmán’s 158 hits allowed in his 187.2 innings of work was also good for an AL-best 7.6 hits per nine innings ratio, while his 3.11 strikeout-to-walk ratio also served as the league’s best.
Though Guzmán pitched his final game of the season on Sept. 1, he was having a terrific second half before his campaign came to an end, pitching to a 2.40 ERA and 1.009 WHIP over the course of 11 starts.
While the Blue Jays finished 74-88 and well out of a playoff spot, Guzmán’s efforts were still overshadowed by a teammate on Toronto’s rotation.
3. Ken Hill, Texas Rangers (+3)
Season stats: 6.6 WAR, 16-10, 3.63 ERA, 7 CG, 3 CGSHO, 250.2 IP, 95 BB, 170 K, 145 ERA+, 1.376 WHIP
In a career year for the AL West champion Rangers, Ken Hill was remarkably durable and consistent throughout the course of the season, ultimately proving to be more valuable statistically than his teammate who won the MVP award.
Though consistent year-round, Hill was excellent in a pivotal July and August for the Rangers, going a combined 6-2 with an ERA well below 3 in both months. Hill’s effectiveness in July helped keep an otherwise slumping club afloat, as the Rangers finished 13-14 for the month.
While much more commonplace decades ago than today, Hill’s durability in 1996 is notable regardless of the era – his seven complete games, three shutouts and over 250 innings pitched were especially valuable for a Rangers team that had an otherwise underwhelming pitching staff.
At a 3.63 ERA, Hill’s performance was more than a run better than the Rangers’ average, including three other starters in Texas’ rotation posting ERAs north of 5.
In addition to posting objectively very good numbers with elite durability, Hill also proved to be uniquely valuable for a division champion that had few other strengths on its pitching staff.
2. Roger Clemens, Boston Red Sox (No votes received)
Season stats: 7.7 WAR, 10-13, 3.63 ERA, 6 CG, 2 CGSHO, 242.2 IP, 106 BB, 257 K, 139 ERA+, 1.327 WHIP
It would have been unheard of in 1996 for any pitcher with a 10-13 record to earn Cy Young votes, equally proven by Clemens’ season as it was Mike Mussina’s campaign, which included a 19-11 record, 4.81 ERA and a fifth-place finish.
Taking the unimpressive and in many ways meaningless win total out of account, The Rocket’s 1996 effort was clearly among the best in baseball that season.
Particularly valuable and durable for a BoSox team that narrowly missed the postseason, Clemens’ final year in Boston saw him lead the AL in strikeouts and strikeouts per nine innings, working to partially offset the career-high 106 walks he allowed.
Clemens’ worth was particularly apparent as part of a Red Sox rotation whose three other main starters all held ERAs over 5, with teammate Tom Gordon leading all of baseball with 134 earned runs given up.
Clemens was consistent across most major splits, and was particularly excellent in the month of August, which saw him go 4-1 with a 1.85 ERA across five starts, greatly aiding his season averages.
The Rocket was also negatively impacted by poor run support – in games in which the Red Sox scored 0-2 runs, Clemens was 3-6 with a 3.12 ERA, mostly holding opponents at bay when Boston’s offense was struggling.
Though Clemens had a stellar season by almost all regards, it’s hard to have complaints with who the writers chose as the AL’s best pitcher in 1996.
1. Pat Hentgen, Toronto Blue Jays (No change)
Season stats: 8.6 WAR, 20-10, 3.22 ERA, 10 CG, 3 CGSHO, 265.2 IP, 94 BB, 177 K, 156 ERA+, 1.250 WHIP
For the second time in my now three-part redux series, I find myself at agreement with the winning consensus on an award, though I’d imagine I have Pat Hentgen first for a few different reasons than some voters.
As for the traditional stats that were seen as the most important, Hentgen more than took care of business. The Toronto ace was a 20-game winner, led the majors in innings pitched and fired off a ridiculous 10 complete games, a number we may never see again at the big league level.
Though for a team that finished well out of playoff contention, Hentgen’s dependability and consistency were simply unmatched across the junior circuit in 1996, corresponding with his MLB-leading 8.6 WAR among pitchers.
For a year that was notable for its emergence of several potent power hitters, Hentgen remained stellar in the more hitter-friendly league. He surrendered just 20 home runs over his more than 265 innings of work, leading the AL with a 0.7 home runs per nine innings ratio.
Hentgen was also remarkably consistent across most major splits, showing little variance in his performance between home vs. away and lefties vs. righties. He also showed an incredible ability to close out innings, holding opponents to a measly .205 batting average with two outs.
The stellar performance with two outs extended to scenarios with runners in scoring position, in which opposing hitters managed just a .188 batting average and .545 OPS with no home runs.
Although several other AL hurlers compiled impressive campaigns in 1996, Hentgen’s was certainly the most complete – in some ways a boosted version of Ken Hill’s season that was also among the AL’s best this season.
Different statistics are certainly valued today, but no matter which lens you look at this race and season through, Pat Hentgen was inarguably an incredible pitcher in 1996.
Thank you for reading, as I’ll extend this series with a redux of the 1996 NL Cy Young Award race.
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