One of baseball’s preeminent power-hitting first basemen, the Atlanta Braves star is closer to Hall of Fame credentials than many may realize.
It’s hard to think of a more picture-perfect ending to a season than what the Atlanta Braves were given in 2021.
Rallying back throughout the year as a decisive underdog to eventually make the postseason as the NL East champions with an 88-73 record, Atlanta went on to dispatch both the Milwaukee Brewers and Los Angeles Dodgers in the playoffs before triumphing over the Houston Astros in the World Series.
The end of it all was drawn up in the most perfect way possible for Braves fans – the series was clinched with a routine groundout to shortstop, fielded by fifth-year veteran Dansby Swanson, who completed the play with a throw to Atlanta icon Freddie Freeman, whose catch sealed the end of a 26-year drought for the Braves.
With Freeman’s free agency looming, the atmosphere among fans was rife with uncertainty as the future Hall of Famer was on his way to potentially find a new home. After 12 seasons with the Braves, Freeman inked a six-year, $162 million deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers, leaving behind his long-term home.
To fill the massive hole that Freeman left, the Braves hit the free agency market as well in hopes of finding a replacement – and they capitalized on the best possible option available.
Matt Olson had just wrapped up a 5.9 WAR campaign with the fledgling Oakland Athletics, who fell short of a playoff berth in 2021 and had their eyes set on a full rebuild. Though flying under the radar due to playing in small market, Olson had already firmly established himself as one of baseball’s best first basemen.
Ahead of the 2022 season, Olson signed an 8-year, $168 million deal with the Braves that includes a team option for the 2030 season, keeping the first baseman in his hometown of Atlanta for what may be the rest of his career.
Despite playing in one of the sport’s smaller markets, Olson wasted no time putting up impressive numbers upon his arrival to the show. After an 11-game cup of coffee as a September call-up in 2016, Olson turned heads the following season with his incredible production in a short amount of time.
Though he only played 59 games in 2017, nearly half of Olson’s 49 hits left the ballpark – with the rookie smacking 24 home runs while slashing .259/.352/.651, good for a 1.003 OPS. The feverish production in a short amount of time led to Olson finishing fourth in AL Rookie of the Year voting – a mere sign of what was ahead.
Olson began to establish his unmatched durability during the following season, which marked the first of what is now five seasons of the first baseman playing in all 162 games. His 2018 campaign saw the first baseman put up 4.0 WAR with 33 doubles, 29 home runs and 70 walks, amounting to a .788 OPS and a 117 OPS+.
In addition to stable offensive production, Olson began to establish his now widespread reputation as a defensive stalwart at first base, taking home his first of three Gold Glove awards in 2018 – a year in which the A’s finished with a 97-65 record ahead of an AL Wild Card Game loss to the New York Yankees.
The 2019 season saw Olson deal with what have been the lone true injury setbacks of his career thus far, missing some time after undergoing surgery to remove the hamate bone in his right hand. Nonetheless, Olson still played in 127 games throughout the season, setting new career-highs with 36 home runs, 91 runs batted in and a .267 batting average.
Although the A’s once again fell short in the AL Wild Card Game after another 97-win season, Olson won his second-straight Gold Glove while also receiving downballot MVP votes for the first time, finishing 21st in AL MVP voting.
The pandemic-shortened 2020 season went on to be Olson’s most underwhelming in his career thus far – though the first baseman still made his way into all 60 games – an impressive feat given the amount of players testing positive for COVID-19 throughout the year.
Though he finished the season with a .195 batting average, Olson still slugged 14 home runs and walked 34 times, enough to still amass 1.3 WAR for the year alongside a slightly above average 103 OPS+. The A’s went on to topple the Chicago White Sox in the AL Wild Card series before falling to the Houston Astros in the ALDS.
Olson’s final year in Oakland served as the perfect platform season heading into free agency. The 2021 season marked the most recent time Olson has missed a game, with the then-27-year-old roping 35 doubles and 39 home runs over 156 games played, alongside a career-high 111 RBI, 88 walks and a .271 batting average.
Despite Oakland finishing 86-76 and out of the playoffs, Olson’s career-high 5.9 WAR was enough to warrant him his first trip to the All-Star Game and a top-10 finish in AL MVP voting, coming in eighth.
At this point in his career, Olson was an excellent all-around first baseman on a thoroughly upward trajectory – although potential clearly does not always equal success.
As Olson is in his fifth year with the Braves, it’s hard to see how Atlanta could have done any better in replacing future first-ballot Hall of Famer Freddie Freeman – though this outcome wasn’t readily apparent from the start.
Olson’s first season in Atlanta was just about on par with what many could have reasonably expected – 34 home runs, 44 doubles, a .240 batting average and a 120 OPS+ – a solid, well above-average power-hitting first baseman that may not adequately replace Freeman, but certainly ensures that there’s no gaping hole in the lineup.
The following season, Olson and Freeman went on to comprise half of what was an incredible top four in NL MVP voting. Olson’s 2023 season currently serves as his magnum opus, which saw him act as the preeminent power bat in what was one of the most impressive lineups in recent MLB history.
The lefty-hitting first baseman left the yard 54 times in 2023, leading all of MLB in home runs and RBI with 139 – while also finishing as the senior circuit’s best slugger with a .604 slugging percentage.
Though undoubtedly an MVP-level season in the absence of Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts and teammate Ronald Acuña Jr. doing even crazier shit, Olson still posted 7.5 WAR en route to a fourth-place MVP finish and his first career Silver Slugger Award.
The 2024 season served as a relative down year for Olson – but that still includes playing in all 162 games with 37 doubles, 29 home runs and a 118 OPS+, still coming away with a solid 3.9 WAR for the season.
Despite 2025 being a down year for the rest of the Braves, Olson returned to form in a big way with a .272/.366/.484/.850 slash line alongside an NL-best 41 doubles and 29 home runs. The campaign sent Olson to his second All-Star Game and also earned him his third Gold Glove Award and an 18th place finish in NL MVP voting.
The torrid start that Olson is off to in 2026 had me thinking – what does his Hall of Fame case look like today?
It’s no secret that Matt Olson is far from the first name that comes to mind when thinking of active players that are future Hall of Famers – and the stats certainly back that up as of now. With a total of 41.6 career WAR, Olson ranks 30th among active players in WAR – yet having just turned 32 with an incredible track record of durability, it’s easy to see how Olson can continue to climb the list.
The first baseman currently stands just four home runs shy of 300 home runs, leaving him on a very realistic trajectory to 500 home runs – with an average of 34 home runs over the next six seasons being enough to get him to the milestone.
While the 500-home run milestone is no longer the automatic ticket to Cooperstown it once was in wake of the steroid era, Olson is far from a one-dimensional player who has not at all been associated with PED usage.
A player like Kyle Schwarber, who is almost certain to reach 500 home runs, presents a much more complicated case for the Hall of Fame than Olson does currently, with Schwarber’s prowess carried by his power-hitting and postseason performance – and the difference shows up in WAR. Despite sitting at 349 career home runs, Schwarber has totaled just 20.2 WAR in his career, which includes a ghastly -13 defensive WAR.
In addition to the long balls, Olson’s case is strengthened by several other factors – he’s a premier defender at a position that often features poor defensive players, he has demonstrated he is capable of hitting for a high average and his durability is truly unmatched when compared to his peers.
Entering play on the week of April 27, 2026, Olson has now played in 811 consecutive games, with his streak dating back to May 2, 2021 during his time with the Athletics. His streak currently ranks as the 11th-longest in MLB history, with Olson just a couple of weeks of games away from moving into the top 10.
Still, Olson is quite far away from being a player who could retire today and make it into the Hall of Fame – but the path to a very compelling candidacy feels very achievable for the veteran first baseman.
Olson’s case could certainly be strengthened by more All-Star appearances, awards and a World Series title, but I don’t think that’s fully necessary. With 500 career home runs and 20-25 more WAR, Olson presents an excellent case for Cooperstown.
The first baseman is also well on his way to 4,000 total bases – a counting stat benchmark hit by many Hall of Famers that has only been reached by 91 players in MLB history, with Freddie Freeman being the only active player to surpass the mark.
At over 2,350 total bases currently, continued power production from Olson would likely get him to the mark at a relatively similar time to reaching 500 home runs – with both of those milestones greatly aiding his case if they are reached.
Matt Olson remains far from a Hall of Fame lock in 2026 – but his path to baseball royalty is surprisingly crystal clear.
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