The MLB Wild Card Series kicks off on Tuesday, with four best-of-three matchups determining who advances to the League Division Series.
It’s always hard to believe once the time of year arrives, but the postseason is here. Another regular season campaign is in the books, with 12 of Major League Baseball’s 30 teams participating in October baseball in 2025.
For now the fourth season, the postseason takes on an expanded format that includes a best-of-three Wild Card series, which replaced a single Wild Card Game that was utilized from 2012 to 2021.
The format also allows the top two teams in each league to have a bye through the Wild Card round, leaving the Toronto Blue Jays, Seattle Mariners, Milwaukee Brewers and Philadelphia Phillies awaiting their League Division Series opponent.
This leaves two series to be played in each league, pitting the third- and sixth-seeded teams against each other while the fourth and fifth seeds face off as well.
Rivalries are also taking center stage in the opening round in the American League, where the Detroit Tigers will look to avenge their 15.5 game blown division lead to the Cleveland Guardians while the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees duel in the playoffs for a sixth time.
As for the National League, the Chicago Cubs are taking on the San Diego Padres in their second all-time postseason matchup, following the 1984 National League Championship Series that saw the Cubs squander a 2-0 series lead in the final season of the LCS being a best-of-five round.
On the west coast, the Los Angeles Dodgers are hosting the Cincinnati Reds in their series, marking the second postseason matchup between the clubs after the 1995 NLDS, a three-game sweep in favor of Cincinnati.
With a razor-thin margin of error and a host of clubs hungry for playoff success, this year’s Wild Card Round should offer plenty of riveting moments. Here’s how I see it shaking out:
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers
It’s hard to ask for a better best-of-three series than what we have on deck with the two AL Central foes.
The Tigers, who looked to have the safest division lead in all of baseball that swelled to 15.5 games at one point, barely scraped their way into the postseason and now have to face the upstart Guardians, who chased Detroit down by going 20-7 in September.
Still, the Tigers appear to at least have an advantage in the series’ first game, even if not home-field – likely back-to-back Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal will be handed the ball for Detroit, facing off against Cleveland’s best starter this year, Gavin Williams.
Momentum often feels inescapable, and that’s certainly the feeling this series has after Detroit dropped five of six games to Cleveland in the final days of the season – yet a few big hits and clutch pitching performances are all it takes to turn it around.
While the Tigers undoubtedly still have a rotation and lineup equipped to get the job done, a vulnerable bullpen that has produced substandard results over a brutal stretch for Detroit is an especially big weakness in front of a raucous Cleveland crowd.
Detroit can easily flip the script, but Cleveland’s home-field advantage and still red-hot lineup should be enough to edge out their division rivals to head to the ALDS. Guardians in three.
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox
In the sixth postseason matchup between the two teams, the fellow AL Wild Card clubs will duke it out in the Bronx for a chance to play another division rival in the Blue Jays.
While the Red Sox put up a mostly consistent season sans a bad May, it’s been a true tale of ups and downs for the Yankees, who were as many as seven games into first place before almost stumbling out of a playoff spot entirely in August.
A stellar 18-7 September paved the way for a 94-win campaign for New York, yet the Red Sox, who went 9-4 against the Yanks in the regular season, have to be feeling at least okay about the matchup.
Perhaps more than any other Wild Card series this year, Game 1 may very well determine the series as aces Max Fried and Garrett Crochet are set to duel Tuesday evening.
Though improved in September, the rosters have a night-and-day difference when it comes to back-end relief, with a career year from Aroldis Chapman headlining Boston’s unit.
While the Yankees boast a big-name bullpen of Luke Weaver, David Bednar, Devin Williams and Camilo Doval among others, it’s been a season-long mixed bag of results, adding extra pressure on possible MVP Aaron Judge, who has notoriously struggled in the postseason.
A strong start from Crochet, lockdown bullpen and one of the better contact-hitting lineups in the league will be enough to take down the Yankees in the minimum. Red Sox in two.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Cincinnati Reds
The Reds squeaked into the playoffs with just 83 wins – the least amount of wins for a playoff team since the 2006 St. Louis Cardinals, who of course promptly went on to win the World Series.
Unlike that Cardinals team, the Reds are lacking one of the greatest hitters of all-time, though they do enter the postseason with a sneakily dangerous rotation. Power-throwing righty Hunter Greene will start Game 1, with playoff-seasoned skipper Terry Francona able to pick from Andrew Abbott, Brady Singer and Nick Lodolo to fill out his rotation.
The stacked Dodgers of course have big names to match the Reds in this regard, with Blake Snell and Yoshinobu Yamamoto set to start the series’ first two games, with the potential of Shohei Ohtani looming on the mound in a Game 3.
The Dodgers quite clearly have the advantage with their lineup, though a battered bullpen marred by shaky seasons from closer Tanner Scott and Blake Treinen could allow the Reds’ offense to fight their way back into games.
While I think fans would be foolish to count out the Reds with a rotation that can hold any lineup at bay, the Dodgers remain a juggernaut filled with experience of deep playoff runs. Dodgers in three.
Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres
Even taking my fandom aside, this does in many ways feel like the biggest toss-up of the first round, particularly with the Cubs’ power bats rolling into the playoffs after a weekend sweep of the St. Louis Cardinals.
While I offered most of my thoughts on this series in a previous piece in regards to Cade Horton’s injury, the series will ultimately boil down to how much the Cubs can take advantage of a shaky Padres rotation in the first half of games.
Though Game 1 starter Nick Pivetta has been excellent all season, veterans Dylan Cease and Yu Darvish have been much more inconsistent, not giving a formidable advantage to San Diego over the Matthew Boyd, Shota Imanaga and Jameson Taillon corps the Cubs are entering the series with.
With the more slugger-friendly lineup, the Cubs will have to capitalize in early innings before a deadly bullpen of Jeremiah Estrada, Adrián Morejón, Wandy Peralta and Robert Suarez waiting in the wings.
Though power was a season-long weakness for a Padres team that finished 28th in home runs, a lineup of Manny Machado, Jackson Merrill and Fernando Tatis Jr. is capable of hitting the ball out of the park at any given moment.
The Cubs certainly have a ceiling of at least winning the National League this season, but the Padres enter this series with considerably fewer question marks and variables, with a team hungry for success after a heartbreaking defeat in the 2024 NLDS.
I can see truly any one of the four possible outcomes taking place in this series, but it does feel like the Padres’ experience can heavily factor into a couple big playoff wins on the road. Padres in two.
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