The Chicago Cubs have won 13 of 20 games to start the second half of the season – but remain 5.5 games behind the Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central.
As beautifully unpredictable as baseball is, I think most Chicago Cubs fans would agree that this year’s team is among the most exciting and equally confusing groups to follow in recent memory.
Entering play on Aug. 7, the Cubs hold a 67-49 record, the third-best mark in the National League and good enough to possess a six-game lead on the top Wild Card spot – the same playoff position the Cubs held last year.
But unlike last season, which was characterized by a feverish first half followed by a second half of multiple concerning slumps, the 2026 Cubs have truly been all over the place – despite getting to just about the same spot by early August.
Somehow, some way, this Cubs team compiled two separate 10-game winning streaks AND a 10-game losing streak all before the end of May – turning what was a 27-12 start to the season into a more unremarkable 29-26 record by the time the losing streak ended.
Since then, the Cubs have been a solidly above-.500 team, something that hasn’t been enough as the Brewers hold the best record in all of MLB. With a 38-23 record since the conclusion of the team’s 10-game losing streak, worries about a repeat of the 2021 season were quickly dissipated after a strong June.
As the Cubs are in position to occupy the same playoff spot they held last year, it’s worth taking a look at what’s different – especially with an NLDS rematch against the Brewers looming if the standings remain how they are now.
By the end of last season, it was fair to reach the conclusion that pitching was more of a strength than it is this year. While the staff wasn’t quite able to hold up against Milwaukee in the NLDS, the Cubs were helped out by better health from their rotation last year, which saw Matthew Boyd, Colin Rea, Jameson Taillon and Shota Imanaga all post sub-4 ERAs, while rookie Cade Horton was the NL Rookie of the Year runner-up.
Of course, the health of the pitching staff on this year’s club has been an absolute nightmare. On top of losing Cade Horton for over a calendar year at the start of the season, the Cubs remain without lefty Justin Steele and have spent lengthy times this season without Matthew Boyd, Ben Brown and offseason pickup Edward Cabrera – leaving a patchwork of a rotation behind at many times.
The results have been rougher around the edges. Taillon was DFA’d late last month after compiling a 5.92 ERA in 15 starts, with Javier Assad, Imanaga and Boyd serving as the most reliable starters for the club.
Of course, unlike last season, the Cubs had an extremely active trade deadline in 2026 – one that seems to have provided a shot in the arm to the clubhouse as the North Siders start August on a roll.
Despite being contenders all the way through in 2025, the Cubs’ deadline additions were limited to utility player Willi Castro and pitcher Mike Soroka – the latter of whom was injured during his first and only start with the club.
Perhaps hearing the noise after a lousy deadline that failed to give the Cubs the boost they needed to chase down the Brewers, Jed Hoyer and Carter Hawkins were extremely busy in 2026, applying intense focus to improving the team’s pitching staff.
While the Cubs didn’t acquire the top prize on the market in Tarik Skubal, the rotation was greatly patched up overnight with the additions of veteran Kevin Gausman from the Toronto Blue Jays and closer-turned-starter Clay Holmes from the New York Mets – giving the Cubs rotation a more polished and formidable look. Also acquired from the Mets was outfielder Tyrone Taylor, who is slotting into a platoon role in the outfield to help provide a tad more positional flexibility for Craig Counsell.
The North Siders also made a notable bullpen add, acquiring righty Ryan Zeferjahn from the Los Angeles Angels in a deal that sent hard-hitting youngster Moises Ballesteros to Anaheim. As the Cubs hope to get closer Daniel Palencia back in the mix down the stretch, the North Siders are now armed with two hard-throwing relievers that will be entrusted to get outs in late and close games.
This is ultimately a better team than what was trotted out in 2025 – and much of it has to do with a more consistent lineup with an unmistakable penchant for getting on-base, which is poised to annoy pitchers come October.
With 497 walks, the Cubs lead all of MLB in free passes – holding 22 more than the Brewers, who of course happen to be second in the league. Much of this increase in walks can be attributed to MVP-frontrunner Pete Crow-Armstrong, who has already more-than-doubled his walk total from 2025 while piecing in as part of a lineup filled with patient hitters.
In addition to PCA’s 60 walks, Michael Busch, Alex Bregman, Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki have all recorded at least 50 walks so far this year, leaving little holes in the lineup when it comes to trying to pitch around powerful bats. The Cubs have home run power up-and-down the lineup, and there isn’t really a spot where pitchers can fully evade.
Needless to say, this is a really good baseball team, and one with more obvious strengths than the division-leading Brewers – a club built on stellar pitching and the ability to put the ball in play. The Cubs will have their chance to confront the Brewers in early September, playing their rivals seven times in the stretch of 10 games beginning on Aug. 31 – serving as the team’s final opportunity to make a push for their first NL Central crown since 2020.
Yet even if they don’t do that, this team is still in as good of a position as anyone else to go on a postseason run – one that would require surviving a best-of-three Wild Card series once again. If they’re able to outlast their opponent to meet the Brewers once again in the NLDS, I think it’s fair to expect that the Cubs aren’t going to get run out of the building in the first two games as they were in 2025.
Even looking beyond the Brewers, no club feels inevitable or unbeatable to the Cubs – even if teams like the Dodgers, Brewers and Phillies would likely emerge as favorites against the North Siders in a playoff series. Led by the best position player in the sport this season, the Cubs patched up many of their obvious holes and clearly have felt a boost from it.
They may not have done enough to make them the World Series favorite, but I’m not sure that was even possible. Yet after a sweep of the favored Dodgers at Wrigley Field, the Cubs have proven they’re capable of matching up well against strong teams while holding a prized mix of experience and youth.
I wouldn’t exactly go placing bets on the Cubs lifting the Commissioner’s Trophy this October, but I think it’s fair to say that their shot is perhaps greater than many think. And with how wildly unpredictable this sport is, who knows? Maybe the CTA Red Line will suffice for World Series transit this season, in an American League with parity not seen in many years.
We will just have to wait and see.
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