With Wednesday marking Opening Night in Major League Baseball, here’s a look at how I see the standings shaking out by the end of the regular season.
An arduous, months-long wait has finally concluded, with the 2026 MLB regular season getting underway Wednesday evening with a bout between the New York Yankees and San Francisco Giants.
This offseason has come with particularly high anticipation over the 2026 season, with fans getting a preview of the action in the 2026 World Baseball Classic while also fearing the high likelihood of an extended lockout in 2027.
For many fans, it was another offseason of the same old. After watching the Los Angeles Dodgers win their second consecutive World Series in an instant classic of a Game 7, baseball’s best team went on to add both Kyle Tucker and Edwin Díaz, further fortifying a team that is already damn near unstoppable.
Yet the Dodgers weren’t the only ones to make major moves this offseason in hopes of a deep October run in 2026. The New York Mets responded to a disappointing 83-win season by adding Marcus Semien, Bo Bichette, Freddy Peralta and Jorge Polanco, hoping to offset the losses of Díaz, Brandon Nimmo and Pete Alonso.
The Philadelphia Phillies and Seattle Mariners got their most important work of the offseason done by re-signing free agent stars, with Philadelphia inking new deals with both Kyle Schwarber and J.T. Realmuto, while the Mariners locked down first baseman Josh Naylor for the long haul.
Out east, the Boston Red Sox are looking to prove last year’s playoff appearance wasn’t an anomaly, emerging as the league’s busiest team on the trade market this offseason. Boston added Sonny Gray, Willson Contreras, Caleb Durbin and Johan Oviedo in trades, while signing starter Ranger Suárez to a five-year deal.
Boston’s most notable subtraction served as the offseason highlight for the Chicago Cubs, who made their big splash by signing third baseman Alex Bregman to a five-year contract, with the North Siders poaching heavily from the Texas Rangers’ bullpen in an effort to address other weaknesses.
Needless to say, there’s been plenty of shuffling throughout the offseason for teams across the league, with the possibility of injuries and adjustments for players in new locations making it essentially impossible to predict how a season will shake out at the end of 162 games.
That of course doesn’t stop myself and many others from doing it anyways – so here’s a look at how I see the standings looking at the end of the regular season:
American League East
- Boston Red Sox: 94-68
- Toronto Blue Jays: 91-71 (WC)
- New York Yankees: 87-75
- Baltimore Orioles: 84-78
- Tampa Bay Rays: 70-92
A tough division to predict given how active three of the teams were this offseason, it ultimately feels like the Red Sox improved the most, despite the loss of Bregman. In addition to having high hopes for continued improvement from Roman Anthony, a midseason return of Triston Casas should add an extra boost for a club that’s already a bit better.
While the Yankees’ big move was simply re-signing Cody Bellinger, the Blue Jays added an ace to their staff in Dylan Cease – an addition that feels even more crucial given the early-season injury to young hurler and playoff hero Trey Yesavage. Though undoubtedly affected by losing Bo Bichette, Toronto’s additions of Cody Ponce and Tyler Rogers further shore up the pitching staff, with even a decent season from Anthony Santander having the potential to make him feel like an offseason addition.
The Orioles should certainly be better than they were last year with the addition of Pete Alonso, though their pitching staff remains one full of question marks, even after picking up Chris Bassitt, Shane Baz and Ryan Helsley.
As for the Rays, it feels like the club simply missed its window from a few years ago, as the team mostly stayed put this offseason with modest additions such as Nick Martinez, Steven Matz and Cedric Mullins.
American League Central
- Detroit Tigers: 95-67
- Kansas City Royals: 88-74 (WC)
- Cleveland Guardians: 82-80
- Chicago White Sox: 69-93
- Minnesota Twins: 65-97
A bit of a tougher division to predict, the AL Central was both the league’s weakest division in 2025 and perhaps the most inactive one overall this offseason.
While the Tigers are nervously anticipating Tarik Skubal’s free agency, Detroit has loaded up the rest of the rotation to make them the clear favorite in the division, with Framber Valdez and Justin Verlander both sliding in behind the team’s ace. Veterans Kenley Jansen and Kyle Finnegan were also picked up, strengthening up the club’s bullpen a bit as well.
Kansas City is hoping to get plenty of internal improvement to push them back towards the playoffs, with high hopes for the modest additions of Matt Strahm and Lane Thomas, among others.
While Cleveland successfully locked down future Hall of Famer José Ramírez through the 2032 season, few other additions were made – making it hard to see how the Guardians noticeably take a step forward after their Cinderella run to the playoffs last season.
Furthermore, I don’t think the White Sox will finish in last place – with the addition of Munetaka Murakami and a full year of Colson Montgomery alone being enough to keep them out of the cellar – although the futility of the Minnesota Twins will certainly help in this regard.
After collapsing in the second half of the season, Minnesota is left looking for answers heading into 2026 with star pitcher Pablo López likely out for the season.
American League West
- Seattle Mariners: 93-69
- Athletics: 88-74 (WC)
- Houston Astros: 81-81
- Texas Rangers: 78-84
- Los Angeles Angels: 75-87
What was a beast of a division in 2025 will likely take a bit of a step back this year – but that doesn’t mean it won’t be just as competitive.
Seattle remains to be the favorite in the division after winning it for the first time in 24 years last year. Despite losing both Jorge Polanco and Eugenio Suárez, the M’s secured a long-term deal with Josh Naylor while also adding Brendan Donovan and Rob Refsnyder to help defensively. Furthermore, as long as they stay healthy, it’s hard to not see Seattle’s rotation once again being among the best in baseball.
The Athletics may not have added much, but it feels like they probably didn’t need to. Finishing 76-86 last year, the A’s were an above .500 team for much of the year, greatly bogged down by an abysmal stretch in May and June in which they lost 20 of 21 games. With another year for young stars Brent Rooker, Nick Kurtz and Shea Langeliers, the A’s should have one of the most high-octane offenses in all of baseball – with additions of Jeff McNeil, Mark Leiter Jr. and Aaron Civale helping at the margins.
The aging Astros I do expect to take a step back, though an unreal rookie year from Tatsuya Imai, the team’s biggest offseason signing, could help turn the club’s fortunes. While the Rangers were very active in completely revamping their bullpen while adding Brandon Nimmo and MacKenzie Gore, the team also lost an awful lot of production, with the holes left by Marcus Semien and Adolis García likely to be felt.
What more can one say about the Angels? Fans of all teams surely hope that Mike Trout turns back the clock with a vintage season, but what more is there to hope for? While Adam Frazier, Brent Suter, Josh Lowe and Grayson Rodriguez are fine additions, it’s hard to see how improvements at the margins could bring the Angels back near the top of what is still a very competitive division.
National League East
- New York Mets: 99-63
- Atlanta Braves: 94-68 (WC)
- Philadelphia Phillies: 89-73 (WC)
- Miami Marlins: 84-78
- Washington Nationals: 68-94
A tough division to predict, it’s hard to see how the top three contenders in the division fare against one another, but my bold prediction is that the Mets will be back in a big way.
This isn’t to understate the losses of Alonso, Nimmo and Díaz, but it’s also easy to see how a mini-revamp of sorts could be exactly what this team needed. With essentially guaranteed top-level production from Francisco Lindor, Bo Bichette and Juan Soto if they’re healthy, the Mets also patched up their pitching staff with Freddy Peralta, Devin Williams and Luke Weaver. The addition of Luis Robert Jr. can also pay dividends, with a new environment perhaps being what was needed for a player that has shown superstar potential in the past.
While the Braves are dealing with a wave of disappointing injury updates heading into the regular season, it’s still quite easy to see how Atlanta can make their way back to the top of the division and league. With a core of star players still intact and a mostly healthy lineup, the Braves can hit with just about anyone in baseball, with additions of Robert Suarez and Mike Yastzemski improving the club at the margins.
The Phillies will still be good, but I foresee this being the first year that the age of the team’s core begins to show. With tons of reliance on Kyle Schwarber, J.T. Realmuto, Trea Turner, Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola, the Phillies feel like they could be among the league’s more injury-prone teams while lacking the offseason additions to help make up for it – though Adolis García serves as a marked improvement over Nick Castellanos.
The Marlins showed signs of life late last year and should be a bit better in 2026, with notable additions of Owen Caissie, Christopher Morel and Pete Fairbanks. Though heavily disadvantaged by playing in a great division, a monster season from Kyle Stowers and continued production from the Fish’s most notable adds should make the Marlins an interesting club.
The Nationals remain reliant on internal improvement to get better in 2026, which I’m quite skeptical of due to the NL East appearing to be improved over what it was last season. Only adding at the margins while trading away MacKenzie Gore, the Nats appear to remain focused on a rebuild heading into this season.
National League Central
- Chicago Cubs: 93-69
- Milwaukee Brewers: 85-77
- Pittsburgh Pirates: 82-80
- Cincinnati Reds: 77-85
- St. Louis Cardinals: 67-95
Another tricky division to predict, the lesson of the past few years is to never fully sleep on the Milwaukee Brewers, who have proven to find new ways to stay near the top of the league throughout the 2020’s thus far.
Milwaukee made a handful of minor additions this offseason, with their headlines mostly dominated by trading away Caleb Durbin, Isaac Collins and Freddy Peralta – while losing several other contributors to free agency.
While I think the Brewers will remain in the mix for a playoff spot, the Cubs have no reason to not win the division by an emphatic margin, armed with a revamped bullpen and the topline additions of Edward Cabrera and Alex Bregman. Whether that happens will rest on the health of a starting rotation and another strong season from the recently extended Pete Crow-Armstrong.
The Pirates should work their way out of the cellar this year, thanks to a few additions on top of having the best pitcher in the sport in Paul Skenes. Brandon Lowe, Ryan O’Hearn, Marcell Ozuna and Jake Mangum are all noteworthy additions to what was in many regards the league’s most anemic offense in 2025, while Gregory Soto and Mason Montgomery look to cushion the Bucs’ bullpen.
The Reds will likely be heavily affected by the long-term absence of Hunter Greene while being quite reliant on heavy production from an aging Eugenio Suárez. While their rotation should still be quite strong, the lineup doesn’t feel nearly improved enough to keep the team in true contention.
While it hasn’t really happened in my lifetime, the Cardinals look more committed to a rebuild than they have at any point since the turn of the century – having traded away Nolan Arenado, Willson Contreras, Brendan Donovan and Sonny Gray while only making minor additions on the free agency market.
National League West
- Los Angeles Dodgers: 104-58
- Arizona Diamondbacks: 92-70 (WC)
- San Diego Padres: 88-74
- San Francisco Giants: 85-77
- Colorado Rockies: 63-99
Perhaps the toughest division in the league to predict outside of the top and bottom spots, there’s little doubt that the Dodgers remain the overwhelming favorite in both the NL West and MLB as a whole entering this season.
After narrowly avoiding becoming the worst team in MLB history last season, the Rockies should be marginally better this season thanks to a few minor additions such as Willi Castro, Jose Quintana and Michael Lorenzen alongside continued improvement from the team’s young core – though they will still be the worst team in the league.
After that it gets quite interesting – though I like the Diamondbacks the most as the team that will emerge in second place and ultimately capture a playoff spot. On top of adding Nolan Arenado with at least some potential for a late-career renaissance, Arizona greatly shored up its entire pitching staff – most notably re-signing Zac Gallen while reuniting with Merrill Kelly on top of several additions to the team’s bullpen. Already one of the league’s better offenses, there’s no reason to expect that to stop this year.
The Padres are an interesting case, though I expect at least a little step back after losing Robert Suarez, Dylan Cease, Luis Arraez and Ryan O’Hearn this offseason. Though the Padres will still have a solid offense led by their top-dollar stars in Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Xander Bogaerts, they will also be quite reliant on some reclamation projects for an added boost – with Triston McKenzie, Nick Castellanos, Walker Buehler and Germán Márquez among them.
The Giants made a few notable moves this offseason, picking up Harrison Bader, Luis Arraez and Tyler Mahle – though none of them feel like the kind of additions that will move the needle in a crowded NL West. I expect a similar season in 2026 from the Giants, even with a full year of Rafael Devers this time around.
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